Process before prediction
A durable investment process should not depend on forecasting every macro variable correctly. It should define what must be true, what can go wrong, how much capital is at risk and what evidence would invalidate the thesis.
Opportunity cost
Capital committed to one idea cannot be committed to another. Portfolio construction therefore requires comparing expected returns, downside, time horizon and confidence rather than evaluating each idea in isolation.
Building the record
These letters will document the evolution of ArtAnt Capital's investment philosophy and research process ahead of the planned launch.